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- 2002/Dec/31(Tue) 11:21 -
A Vision for World and Japan in 2020
This article is a forecast for the year 2020. This article is long. So at first, major conclusions are written. The conclusions are forecasts for 2020, especially focused on following 3 points.
*** Conclusions ***
1. In the world, establishment of World Government will become a common sense until 2020.
2. In Japan, until 2020, opinion to abolish the Emperor System will be much stronger. Article 9 of Constitution of Japan prohibits Japan from having a military force. There is an opinion among some people that the article 9 should be revised so that Japan can have the official military force. If the movement to revise the article 9 actually occurs in the Diet, it will be an occasion when the argument to abolish the Emperor System will break out among ordinary citizen.
But, Emperor will continue to exist in the private sector and will be respected customarily or privately. Once the system is abolished, if we insist to restore the system, we will be laughed at. This is just like that if we insist to abolish the Diet and Cabinet of Japan and restore the Shogunate (feudal government), we will be laughed at.
3. In Japan, until 2020, financial debt of Government of Japan will be too heavy to refund it. So, the Government of Japan will have to stop the refund of national bond. When this happens, it will become another occasion when the argument to abolish the Emperor System will break out.
These opinions are written in the following pages also.
"World Party" http://www.w-g.jp/wp/wp.htm
"World Party Japan" http://www.w-g.jp/wp/japan/wpj.htm In the section "Abolition of Emperor System and Denouncement of US-Japan Security Treaty"
"Policy of World Party Japan" http://www.w-g.jp/wp/japan/policy-wpj.htm In the section of "4 Financial Debt and the End of Regime"
*** The above is the conclusions. Then, let us go into the detail. ***
A Vision for World and Japan in 2020
Now, in December 2002, I would like to express my opinion on the political and economic situation of world in 2020 and, as I am a Japanese, my opinion on that of Japan. Needless to say, 21st century is characterized by the diffusion of Internet. Now, people in the world can exchange information and opinion at the grassroots level. So world will change drastically and we need philosophy and vision for the 21st century. The following is a vision for the year 2020 from a viewpoint of a World Citizen aiming to establish the World Federation and Government. Here, World Federation is a worldwide federation of independent countries and World Government is the central government of World Federation.
Especially, with regard to Japan, generation gap between pre-war generation and post-war generation is very large. Japanese of pre-war generation received traditional education but post-war generation received American type democratic education. 2020 is the year 75 years after the end of World War II. So, most Japanese are post-war generation. So, until then, political awareness of Japanese will change drastically.
Here, my vision is based on the philosophy that "Truly good thing shall become a common sense." In other words, "The truth shall become a common sense." Needless to say, truly good thing is different from age to age and place to place. For example, in 10th century, if we insisted to establish the national congress, we would have been laughed at. But in the present age, if we insist to abolish the congress and restore the feudal dynasty, we will be laughed at. This is because in 10th century, feudal dynasty was truly good thing and now democracy is truly good thing. So if truly good thing changes due to the stream of history, the world will change. So, we must think about future vision.
A. Political Aspect
Now, some people are aiming to establish the World Federation and World Government. It is a popular idea among minor people but will become a common sense among world people due to the diffusion of Internet because the benefits of World Federation and World Government are formidable. Basic benefits of World Federation and World Government are as follows.
1. World Government can reduce or prevent the war and so the destruction by war is reduced or prevented.
2. World Government can reduce the military expenditure.
3. Fluctuation of exchange rate will be removed because the World Central Bank will issue the international common currency.
Thus, the best economic policy is to establish the World Federation and World Government. There are many ideas on how to establish the World Federation and World Government. One idea is to establish the World Parliament without legislative power like European Parliament. World Federation and World Government are established on the basis of this parliament. This idea is, among some people, a common sense and being promoted. My idea is one of these. It is shown in
"World Party" http://www.w-g.jp/wp/wp.htm .
This idea is to establish the World Parliament by the force of international party. Needless to say, this idea is not the only idea possible. In this site, there are some links to other related sites with various ideas. At least,
"WFM (World Federalist Movement)" http://www.wfm.org/
should be mentioned. It is an NGO aiming to establish the World Federation by evolving the United Nations and, at the same time, is an international secretariat of
"Coalition for an International Criminal Court" http://www.igc.org/icc/ .
With regard to international party, parties of that kind will increase. These types of parties are, at present, Green Party and Transnational Radical Party. World Party is of this kind. But it is just an idea at present.
B. Economic Aspect
On the other hand, also economic aspect of world is very important. In the age of globalization, rich people are becoming richer and richer but poor people still remain poor. Among 6 billion people in the world, 1 billion people are suffering from mal nutrition. So World Federation and Government will play very important role.
USA and Japan are playing very important role. In 1998, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of USA is 29.2 % of world GDP and that of Japan is 13.4%. GDP of both countries is 42.6% of world GDP. Author is living in Japan. So I would like to write about Japanese economy.
Here, let us briefly review the history of Japan. A brief chronology is as follows.
1192: Kamakura Shogunate (Japan's feudal government at Kamakura) was established and continued until 1333.
1336: Muromachi Shogunate (Japan's feudal government at Kyoto) was established and continued until 1573.
1467: Ohnin Riot broke out and the age of Civil Wars, which continued until 1590, began.
1590: Japan was unified by Hideyoshi Toyotomi.
1603: Edo Shogunate (Japan's feudal government at Edo (present Tokyo)) was established and continued until 1867.
1853: Commodore Perry came to Uraga, Japan. Next year, US-Japan Peace Treaty was concluded.
1861: Civil War in USA
1867: Restoration of Imperial Rule. Fall of Edo Shogunate
1874: Dispatch of troops to Taiwan
1889: Promulgation of the Constitution of Great Japanese Empire. Establishment of prewar Emperor System
1894: Sino-Japanese War
1904: Russo-Japanese War
1910: Annexation of Korea
1914: World War I
1920: Entry into the League of Nations
1931: Manchurian Incident
1932: 5.15 Incident. Prime Minister Tsuyoshi Inukai was murdered.
1933: Withdrawal from the League of Nations
1936: 2.26 Incident. Finance Minister Korekiyo Takahashi and others were murdered.
1939: World War II
1941: In November, USA presented the Hull=Note which required concessions such as the withdrawal of Japan from China and Vietnam. In December, the Pacific War.
1945: The end of the war.
1946: The Constitution of Japan was announced.
1947: The Constitution of Japan became effective. Emperor became the symbol of Japan.
Brief chronology of Japan is the above. In the history of Japan, Emperor has been playing very important role. From around 6th century, Emperor had been ruling Japan until 1192. But from around 1192, Japanese warriors, namely Samurai or Bushi, began to get the power. In 1192, Yoritomo Minamoto was appointed by Emperor to the Shogun. Shogun was the commander-in-chief of an expeditionary force against the barbarians. He established the Kamakura Shogunate at Kamakura. The Shogunate existed from 1192 to 1333. After a short period of conflict, Muromachi Shogunate was established at Muromachi, Kyoto. In this Shogunate, Takauji Ashikaga was appointed by Emperor to the Shogun. This Shogunate existed from 1336 to 1573. But, the Ohnin Riot broke out in 1467. After this riot, country entered into the Age of Civil Wars. In the Age of Civil Wars, Muromachi Shogunate existed only in name until 1573. This Civil War continued from 1467 to 1590. In 1590, Japan was unified by Hideyoshi Toyotomi. He could not become the Shogun but was appointed by Emperor to Taiko. Taiko was a father of Imperial Adviser. After he died, Ieyasu Tokugawa got the power. He was appointed by Emperor to the Shogun and established the Edo Shogunate at Edo (present Tokyo). The Shogunate continued from 1603 to 1867. In the most part of period of Edo Shogunate, Japan was put under the isolation policy. Namely, Japan had no trade with foreign countries with few exceptions. In 1853, Commodore Perry from USA came to Uraga, Japan and required to open the country. Next year, US-Japan Peace Treaty was concluded. Around 1867, feudal lord gathered under the banner of Emperor to overthrow the Shogunate. After the Shogunate was overthrown, the rule by Emperor was restored. So far, Emperor ruled Japan directly or customarily appointed the ruler of Japan. Emperor was respected customarily but not stipulated by the constitution. In 1889, the Constitution of Great Japanese Empire was promulgated and, for the first time, the Emperor was stipulated by the constitution as the head of state. Here, the prewar Emperor System was established. In 1945, Japan was defeated in the World War II, and the Constitution of Japan was announced in 1946. The Constitution became effective next year, and the Emperor became a symbol of Japan. In the constitution, Prime Minister of Japan is nominated by the Diet and appointed by Emperor.
Thus, except for some short periods, Emperor ruled Japan directly from around 6th century to 1192, appointed Shogun of Shogunate from 1192 to 1867, ruled Japan directly according to the constitution from 1867 to 1945, and has been a symbol of Japan and appoints the Prime Minister of Japan according to the constitution from 1947 till now.
A. Political Aspect
Now, Japan is a democratic and peaceful country. But it has a potentially serious problem. It is written in the web site of World Party Japan. Please see
"World Party Japan" http://www.w-g.jp/wp/japan/wpj.htm .
It is written in the section "Abolition of Emperor System and Denouncement of US-Japan Security Treaty." Basically, the article says that if the US army staying in Japan withdraws from Japan, there will emerge a condition that incidents like 5.15 Incident or 2.26 Incident occur and militarism come again. So we must abolish the Emperor System. But we need to establish the World Federation and World Government before denouncing US-Japan Security Treaty because, if US army leaves Japan, Japan will loose nuclear umbrella.
B. Economic Aspect
This opinion is written in
"Policy of World Party Japan" http://www.w-g.jp/wp/japan/policy-wpj.htm
also. Please see the section of "4 Financial Debt and the End of Regime."
Needles to say, Japan has been in recession for more than 10 years. The debt of government finance amounts to 140 % of GDP. Unemployment rate is about 5.5% or more and this is the worst record after the World War II. We can read many articles on Japan's economic recession. But no article points out the true reason. At first, we must understand the history of Japan to know the true reason. If we look back the age when the national finance was in crisis in the history of Japan, we can see that the past age and the present age resemble each other very well.
In the Kamakura Period (1192-1333), the Kamakura Shogunate issued the Tokuseirei (an order of cancellation of debts) in 1297. Thirty-six years later, the Shogunate was overthrown in 1333. In Muromachi Period (1336-1467), Shashakus (people engaged in transport business by borrowing wagons), Bashakus (people engaged in transport business by borrowing horses), and farmers got the Tokuseirei from the Muromachi Shogunate in 1441. Twenty-six years later, the Ohnin Riot broke out in 1467 and the country entered into the Age of Civil Wars (1467-1590). In the Age of Civil Wars, Muromachi Shogunate existed only in name until 1573. In this age, Japan was in the anarchy for more than 100 years. Each country fought to unify Japan. In the Edo Period (1603-1867), Tadakuni Mizuno, a member of Shogun's Council of Edo Shogunate, implemented the Tenpo Reform from 1841. He issued the Kienrei (an order of cancellations of debts) and exempted the part of debts of Hatamotos and Gokenins (direct and low-grade retainers of Shogun). Furthermore, he tried to extract a huge amount of government funds from merchants. These government funds were, as it were, forced public bonds because they are to be refunded with interest. Furthermore, he issued a great amount of money by lowering the quality, and so the inflation occurred. And 26 years later, the Shogunate was overthrown in 1867. From these histories, we know that from 26 to 36 years after the Tokuseirei or Kienrei, Shogunate was overthrown or became only in name. It seems that, in the process of rise and fall of Shogunate, the debt was bilked.
Considering these, we can see that the present age resembles very well the ages when a regime was overthrown and a new regime emerged. Namely, in the present age, there are not only the financial debt but also the policy such as relief of banks and construction companies that cannot escape from bankruptcy. Banks are relieved by injecting public fund and construction companies are relieved by investing into public utilities. These policies can be called the Tokuseirei of present age. Banks and major construction companies can be called, considering the connection with LDP (Liberal Democratic Party), Hatamotos and Gokenins of present age. Then, if a regime is to collapse, what regime will collapse? It is the regime of LDP with the Emperor System as axis. And what regime will come? It will be the democratic regime based on the President System.
The mechanism of regime fall can be explained as follows. Emperor System itself has been continuing while sometime Emperor itself ruled a country or sometime appointed the ruler. But the ruler of country changed many times under the Emperor. The reason why some regimes have repeated the rise and fall is that the Emperor System is a hereditary system. The Emperor System is hereditary so the privileged classes around the Emperor are also hereditary. For example, in the Edo Shogunate, Shogun was appointed by Emperor. But there emerged a gap between the privileged classes such as Emperor, Shogun, Hatamotos, Gokenins, Daimyos (feudal lord) and other people because the privileged classes are hereditary. The Shogunate promoted the purge of outside Daimyos (Daimyos who were not hereditary feudatories of Shogun) and, on the other hand, favored Hatamotos and Gokenins in order to maintain the regime. Inevitably, the finance of Shogunate becomes tight. The Shogunate issued the Kienrei or recast coins and boosted the volume in order to compensate the deficit. Thus, in this process the complaint of people accumulated and the Shogunate was overthrown. This can be said for also the Kamakura Shogunate and the Muromachi Shogunate before the Edo Shogunate. Needless to say, in the present age, the government corresponds to the Shogunate. The government, as a policy to prevent the financial crisis, relieves the banks which are inescapable from the bankruptcy or, as an economic package, apportions the budget of country to unnecessary public utilities to save construction companies. Although banks and major construction companies are, at present, being maintained by these measures, it is going to be impossible to refund the debt of government. Furthermore, ruling party LDP is going to be unable to maintain the power without forming a coalition with former opposition parties.
Although Japanese economy is in recession, financial assets of people are more than two times as large as the GDP and Japan is the largest creditor nation in the world. So, financial debt is the responsibility of the government. LDP is, being aware of the increase in the debt, apportioning the budget favorably into banks and major construction companies, because LDP cannot maintain the power without favoring banks and major construction companies which are the supporting base of LDP. Whether it is the Shogunate or the government, this is repeated as far as Japan is ruled by revering the Emperor. So, until 2020, Government of Japan will have to stop the refund of its national bond.
Thus, economy of Japan can be called "Debt Bilking Economy." Therefore, we can say that only the democracy can prevent the repetition of corruption and collapse of hereditary power structure. Here, there is another reason, other than to prevent the militarism, why we must abolish the Emperor System and introduce the President System.
C. Japan in 2020
Here, the abolition of Emperor System is recommended. But, the Emperor will continue to exist after the abolition of Emperor System. The Emperor will shift from political system to private sector and will be customarily or privately respected. It is like Pop and Vatican of Christianity, Mecca of Islam, and Varanasi of Hinduism. They are not in the political system and do not have any power legally but are respected customarily or privately. At the time of abolition, compensation such as lump sum, pension, etc. for imperial family and related people will be necessary.
The movement to abolish the Emperor System will break out in two occasions. One is revision of Article 9 and another is bankruptcy of national finance of Japan. Article 9 of Constitution of Japan prohibits Japan from having a military force. There is an opinion among some people that the article 9 should be revised so that Japan can have the official military force. If the movement to revise the article 9 actually occurs in the Diet, it will be an occasion when the argument to abolish the Emperor System will break out among ordinary citizen. And also, financial debt of Government of Japan will lead to the bankruptcy of national finance. Namely, at some point, government must give up refunding the national bond. This will be another occasion that argument to abolish the Emperor System will break out.
Around 2020, we must consider the change of generation of people in Japan. In Japan, pre-war generation and post-war generation is very different. Pre-war generation received Japanese traditional education. But post-war generation received American type democratic education. The year 2020 is 75 years after the World War II. Namely, in 2020, most Japanese are the generation that received or are receiving post-war education. So, abolition of Emperor System will be a common sense among people. Or, at least, opinion that supports the abolition will be clearly stronger.
Once the Emperor system is abolished, people will remember it only as a past history. So if we insist to restore the Emperor System, we will be laughed at. This is just like that if we insist to abolish the Diet and Cabinet of Japan and to restore the Shogunate, we will be laughed at.
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