Chapter I. INTRODUCTION
The topic of research and the basic contents of each chapter are written.
The topic is as the title shows, to formulate an investment criterion.
The basic purpose is to formulate a practical criterion and not to formulate
an abstract one. The research is focused on the Indian economy, and so
the investment criterion was formulated with regard to the Indian economy.
The criterion was named ''The Possibility Index."
Chapter II. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Theoretical framework of the research is written.
In section I, some theories on investment decision are surveyed. They are
surveyed, especially, with regard to the factors taken into account and
the determinant factor of investment. Theories surveyed are the Capital-Turnover
Criterion, the Social Marginal Productivity Criterion, the Reinvestment
Criterion, the Time Series Criterion, the Ratio of Labor to Investment
Criterion, the Balanced and the Unbalanced Growth, the Cost-Benefit Analysis,
the theories on External Economies and Economies of Scale, the Marginal
Efficiency of Capital, the Acceleration Principle, the Neoclassical Theory,
and the Tobin's q Theory.
In section 2, the Possibility Index, which is the topic of research, is
described. It is a criterion aiming to raise the efficiency of economy
by investing the limited resources into the sector of which the possibility
of growth is high as compared with the other sectors. The possibility of
growth is shown as the ratio between the desired production capacity and
the actual production capacity. The latter capacity is available from the
existing statistics but the former capacity must be calculated. The way
to calculate the desired capacity is not specified here. It is specified
after analyzing all the data available on the Indian economy.
In section 3, the method of analysis on the Indian and the Japanese economy
is explained. This analysis is to see how the data available can reflect
the possibility of growth. Two economies are compared in order to see the
situation of investment of both economies.
Chapter III. MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IN INDIA
Selected 9 sectors of Indian manufacturing industry are analyzed. Especially,
they are analyzed with regard to the output, production capacity, capacity
utilization, estimated demand, exports and imports, availability of raw
materials, demand for and supply of products, profitability, etc.
Chapter IV. MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IN JAPAN
Selected 6 sectors of Japanese manufacturing industries are analyzed. They
are analyzed in the same way as the Indian industries as far as possible.
Chapter V. FIELD WORK AT A CEMENT FACTORY
The results of field work conducted at a cement factory are shown. This
field work was to see the differences between the literature the author
had cited and the reality in the industry surveyed. And, the author's impression
on the Indian economy is noted.
Chapter VI. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS OF THE SURVEY
The results of survey on the Indian and the Japanese manufacturing industries
are summarized in order to help the readers easily understand the research.
And, the problems of Indian manufacturing industries which were made clear
from the comparison of both countries are written as the conclusion of
Chapter VII. FORMULATION OF THE INVESTMENT CRITERION
The way to calculate the Possibility Index is formulated.
In section 1, the way to calculate the desired capacity is specified.
In section 2, the desired capacity, which is necessary to calculate the
Possibility Index, is calculated for 9 sectors selected.
In section 3, the Possibility Index is calculated and the result is examined.
In section 4, necessary data to calculate more accurately the Possibility
Index are specified while so far the Possibility Index was calculated from
the existing data. These data may be existing or may not be existing but
are technically possible. And the way to calculate the Possibility Index
from these specified data are specified.
As written above, the Possibility Index is calculated as follows.
PI = ------- X 100,
PI: Possibility Index
DCAP: desired production capacity
CAP: actual production capacity.
The Possibility Index of 9 sectors are as
Nine sectors are
1 Diesel Engine Industry,
2 Radio Receiver Industry,
3 Cement Industry,
4 Soda Ash Industry,
5 Power Transformer Industry,
6 Electric Motor Industry,
7 Ceramic Insulator Industry (low tension),
8 Lead Industry,
9 Soap Industry.
Chapter VIII. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
Summary of the research is written and the conclusion is drawn. The merit
of the Possibility Index against the other investment theories and criteria
are examined. And, the reliability and the future perspective of the Possibility
Index are examined.
In section 1, sources of data of figures and notes for figures are collected.
In section 2, figures are collected.
In section 3, tables are collected.